Clemson and Florida State's fit and why we can't quit talking realignment: SEC mailbag (2024)

Greg Sankey stood at the lectern last week in Dallas, expecting to take a few questions about lawsuits, then turn the page to this football season. To his evident surprise, realignment became the most common question.

Welcome to our world: As much as we all want to talk about actual football, we just can’t quit one topic. I picked one of the multiple questions I got to start this uh, pre-preseason mailbag.

(Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for clarity and length.)

Will the SEC target two to four more universities to join the conference, and would they then move back to a divisions format? Wouldn’t you say Clemson and Florida State seem like slam-dunk SEC fits, and Miami, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Central Florida could be considered possibilities for two more additions? — Tim F.

Sankey last week came the closest he has to voicing what others inside the SEC have been saying since Florida State filed its lawsuit against the ACC. It came during an interview at media days: “We’re not gonna take our pie and slice it into more pieces. We have to grow the pie.”

“We’re not gonna take our pie and slice it into more pieces…” @SEC Commissioner @GregSankey on the Florida State situation pic.twitter.com/kizNtBSyyG

— The Next Round (@NextRoundLive) July 18, 2024

Oh, he just has to say that, you may say. Well, I’ve covered Sankey long enough to realize that’s him pretty directly telling Florida State, Clemson and anyone else to explain how SEC schools would make more money by adding them. Those schools want to escape the ACC so they can make the $70 million or so that SEC schools could make this year in the new TV and CFP contracts. But if Florida State and Clemson became free agents tomorrow and joined the SEC, all the conference could get from ESPN is the same pro rata increase it got for adding Oklahoma and Texas. That’s what Sankey is saying, along with an implication that the pie may not necessarily grow enough for SEC schools to make as much as they are.

And if you believe ESPN is pulling strings behind the scenes, do you really think it wants schools it’s paying much less to broadcast in the ACC to go to the SEC, where ESPN would have to pay more?

Here’s what’s really going on here, based on talking to people around the conference the past few weeks:

This isn’t about Florida State and Clemson. If they win their lawsuits, or at least get out of the ACC grant of rights, then it’s very possible that everybody in the ACC is available … including North Carolina and Virginia. Those are the two schools the SEC and Big Ten will really fight over, especially North Carolina. Notice that Sankey kept using the phrase “contiguous states,” which doesn’t rule out adding schools already in the SEC’s footprint, as it did with Texas, but expanding to North Carolina and Virginia would do that. Yes, they aren’t as strong in football as Florida State and Clemson, but they make up for it in geography, market size, academic prestige and basketball, which all count for something.

That isn’t to say it’s definitely Virginia, or only those two schools. Maybe North Carolina wants to be a package deal with NC State or Duke. Maybe it’s two North Carolina schools plus Virginia and Virginia Tech. If the ACC grant of rights is blown up, then all options are on the table, and the SEC and Big Ten will be swarming in the way teams preyed on Alabama’s roster when Nick Saban retired.

But there are many unknowns on how these lawsuits will play out. What if Florida State and Clemson settle with the ACC, and merely become free agents without breaking up the ACC grant of rights? Does that lock North Carolina and everyone else in with the ACC? My guess is the SEC would let Florida State and Clemson go to the Big 12, unless the Big Ten decides it wants to expand into SEC territory. That could be the move that forces the SEC’s hand.

There’s a long way to go on all this, though. Florida State and Clemson look like they’ll at least stay in the ACC through 2025, and we don’t know who will win the lawsuits, or if there will be settlements. Sankey and SEC presidents are watching and planning for different scenarios.

After SEC media days, was there any team, player, or coach that you feel deserves a little more hype heading into the season? Anyone being overhyped? — Anthony M.

While the media vote isn’t quite representative — only a portion of those credentialed actually take the time to vote — I didn’t have major problems with the predicted order:

Maybe I would have bumped Kentucky ahead of Texas A&M and Auburn, and my championship pick is Texas, mainly because of the schedule. But no big problems with the actual order.

But look closer at the margins, and it’s surprising Oklahoma came that close to the top tier. The Sooners will be just fine in the SEC, ultimately, but with a new quarterback, a young offensive line and a tough schedule, it’s veering toward optimism to be so close to Missouri, which has so much coming back and an easier schedule.

Mizzou and LSU, in fact, belong closer to Alabama and Ole Miss. In LSU’s case, if the defense can get just a bit better, and I’m not sure how it can be worse, the offense just needs to not slip much, and the Tigers have a very manageable schedule. On the other hand, Alabama lost a lot of front-end talent, and Ole Miss will have to show it can meet the moment, which it didn’t do last year when it played Alabama and Georgia.

I’ve also been surprised at how bullish people are on Georgia, given its schedule. That must be the respect factor for what Kirby Smart has built, and it is very much a talented team. But with road trips to Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss, as well as Kentucky, the opener in Atlanta against Clemson, even the home game against Tennessee, going 10-2 seems reasonable. Maybe this was the media’s way of preventing Smart from the “nobody respects us” motivational tactic.

(Yes, Texas is my championship pick. I’m sure this means the Longhorns will face-plant in their transition, Georgia will go unbeaten, and Smart will take screenshots to remind me after they roll to the conference title.)

As for players, Missouri quarterback Brady Cook strikes me as someone not getting enough hype. I don’t have a huge problem with him not making first, second or third team, given how top-heavy the conference is at the position, but he could have a big year. And while Georgia had 14 players make one of the teams, one who didn’t has first-team potential: inside linebacker CJ Allen.

This is arguably the most talented team Mark Stoops has had, but UK’s schedule is brutal. How many wins should UK fans be happy with? IF UK misses a bowl game for the first time in nine years — are we fans allowed to call for a change? I love Stoops and what he has done for our program, but his last two seasons have underwhelmed. — Matt R.

And the dalliance with Texas A&M will be brought up again if the Wildcats stumble. But whether you call the schedule “brutal” depends on your expectations: The games against Georgia, Ole Miss and Texas (only Georgia at home) are the only ones in which the Cats look to be huge underdogs. There are five games they’ll be clear home favorites. That leaves four swing games: at Florida, at Tennessee, home against Auburn and Louisville. Given that, 8-4 should be considered a good season, 7-5 a solid season. Less than that, yeah, the natives should be restless.

My guess is a solid season. Brock Vandagriff will make some games interesting, especially with his dual-threat ability. Deone Walker, now with Jamon Dumas-Johnson behind him, should make it hard to run on Kentucky.

Overall, the goal this season for Stoops is to show his record isn’t a product of playing in the SEC East, where he took care of the weaker teams but never broke through to win the division. In this division-less world, Stoops’ team needs to show it will still be a tough out, capable of occasionally contending for the 12-team field.

Is the Gameco*cks offense the most underrated, under-talked about, under-hyped offense in the SEC? — N.L.

Eh, ask me again after that second game, at Kentucky. Or as the season goes on, because the issue with South Carolina’s offense is consistency. Now you’ve got a new quarterback in LaNorris Sellers, presumably, unless it’s Robby Ashford, and either way there’s high risk, high reward there. The addition of Raheim “Rocket” Sanders, with a veteran offensive line, could help the run game.

It would certainly be nice for Shane Beamer for the offense to be dangerous. He’s brought energy in his first three years at South Carolina, and the first two seasons were good, but last year was a step back. The goal this year is obviously to get back to a bowl, but also to establish an identity in this new SEC. (Yes, there’s a theme here.) Show an upward trajectory in this newer, tougher conference.

Razorback fan here. Realistically, who gets to four wins first? Sam Pittman or John Calipari? — Cameron W.

Sadly, it’s a good question: Arkansas football should win at least four games this year, but none of its conference games are gimmes, and its third home nonconference game, against Louisiana Tech, isn’t until Nov. 23. Will Pittman make it to then? He’ll need to get some wins along the way, and it may take 7-5 to get him another year. I’m not very optimistic, but who knows, maybe the wild hire of Bobby Petrino works. But Petrino didn’t turn around the Texas A&M offense last year. I wouldn’t rule out a turnaround, but I’m not seeing it.

Will the SEC make a play for the Texas State Bobcats? I know the Big 12 and ACC are courting them. — Mark G.

Sewanee or bust, everyone. Sewanee or bust.

(Photo of SEC commissioner Greg Sankey: Denny Simmons / Tennessean / USA Today)

Seth Emerson is a senior writer for The Athletic covering Georgia and the SEC. Seth joined The Athletic in 2018 from The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, and also covered the Bulldogs and the SEC for The Albany Herald from 2002-05. Seth also covered South Carolina for The State from 2005-10. Follow Seth on Twitter @SethWEmerson